Politics · Fading
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
A 50/50 in all but name — 46% — and easing lower.
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What moved today — the five biggest 24-hour repricings
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by September 30?17% ▼ 33
The market's wary: 17%, down 33 and sinking.
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?70% ▼ 22
Tilted toward yes at 70% — and collapsing, down 22. Sharps are watching.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?76% ▼ 8
Out in front at 76%; sentiment's cooling. Sharps are watching.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?84% ▼ 6
The front-runner here — 84% — off a touch, 6.
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?12% ▲ 6
Priced as a real reach at 12%, and ticking higher.
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The board today
Table 1 · The board · Top 12 of 60 live markets by volume · Polymarket, prices read at publication
Probabilities are public prediction-market prices, read plainly. Volume is lifetime, in dollars.
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