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OddsXray · The Board Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · Live prices
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Politics
Section

Politics

Live implied probabilities across 6 politics markets — the real odds behind each, read plainly and updated through the day.

The Ledger

Table 1 · Live implied probability · n = 6 markets · Polymarket · July 28, 2026
MarketProb24hVol
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?72%▼ 8$2.3M
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?28%▲ 9$2.1M
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?85%—$147K
Fed rate hike in 2026?78%▲ 11$108K
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?32%▼ 5$83K
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?4%—$47K

Prob is the market’s public mid-price at the last update, read plainly. 24h is the move in implied probability, in points. Vol is lifetime notional on Polymarket.

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