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OddsXray · The Board Tuesday, July 28, 2026 · Live prices
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Section

Geopolitics

Live implied probabilities across 15 geopolitics markets — the real odds behind each, read plainly and updated through the day.

The Ledger

Table 1 · Live implied probability · n = 15 markets · Polymarket · July 28, 2026
MarketProb24hVol
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?12%—$282K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?53%▲ 2$275K
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?22%—$223K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?95%▲ 8$187K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?55%—$158K
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?3%▼ 2$113K
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?14%▲ 2$107K
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?82%▼ 4$87K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?5%—$77K
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?71%▲ 4$77K
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?3%▼ 4$72K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?3%▼ 3$50K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?97%▲ 5$46K
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?5%▲ 2$46K
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?74%▲ 8$46K

Prob is the market’s public mid-price at the last update, read plainly. 24h is the move in implied probability, in points. Vol is lifetime notional on Polymarket.

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