Exhibit: the method
The method, in full
Published so you can disagree with it — and check it.
Every competitor in this category sells a proprietary score. Ours is written down here, in the same words the code runs on, with the public endpoints you need to compute it yourself. If the rule changes, the version number changes with it and the old calls keep the rule they were made under.
Exhibit A — the call rule, verbatim
Call rule v1.1 · in forceA call is emitted when all of the following are true:
- WHO — the wallet is in the tracked cohort at the moment of the trade. The cohort is the top 100 RATED wallets by composite score, rebuilt daily from the public trade tape. A wallet is RATED only with at least 8 settled trips across at least 4 distinct markets; it enters the cohort only with a positive settled edge (realized ROI > 0 on money actually risked) and a composite score in the top decile (≥ the 90th percentile) of every rated wallet scored in that day’s refresh.
- WHAT — the wallet OPENS A NEW position: a market + outcome it has no prior recorded position in. Adding to a position it already holds is not a call.
- HOW BIG — the new position is at least 3× the wallet’s own median settled stake, and at least $250. The multiple is the signal; the floor exists so a wallet whose median stake is a few dollars cannot emit calls on pocket change.
- WHEN — the market is open, accepting orders, and resolves more than 24 hours and less than 120 days from the moment of the signal. The lower bound excludes the 5-minute crypto markets that dominate the tape; the upper bound keeps the published record one that actually settles.
- ONCE — while a call on that wallet + market + side is still open, no second call is emitted for it.
How the ROI figure is computed: $100 on every settled call at the price recorded when the call was emitted, resolution pays 1 or 0. Losses included at full weight. Gross of Polymarket's own fees — each call records the fee schedule its market declares.
That is the whole trigger. There is no discretion in it, no editor, no “we liked this one.” The engine polls the public tape; when a position satisfies every clause above, a call is written to the record with the timestamp of that moment. When the market resolves, the same row is marked hit or miss and the realised return of taking that side at that price is computed and printed.
Calls are never backfilled. The record opened July 25, 2026 and cannot contain anything older than that, by construction.
Exhibit B — how a wallet gets rated
Right now: 59 wallets in the tracked cohort, 59 of them rated, refreshed jul 28, 2026 · 03:23 utc. The whole list is published, wallet by wallet, with each one’s own public settled record and the five components behind its score: the rated cohort →
A wallet is scored on its settled record only, on five components. A wallet without enough settled history is reported as UNRATED rather than given a flattering number, and an unrated wallet can never fire a call.
| Component | What it measures, and why |
|---|---|
| Edge | Realised ROI across settled positions only. An open position is an opinion; a settled one is a result. Unrealised gains count for nothing here. |
| Consistency | Win rate across settled positions, shrunk toward 50% when the sample is small, so a wallet that is 4-for-4 can never outrank one that is 180-for-300. |
| Breadth | How many distinct markets the wallet has actually traded. One lucky market cannot carry a score. |
| Discipline | A penalty for size dispersion. A flat-staking trader is demonstrating a process; a wallet with one 50× outlier is demonstrating a gamble. |
| Survival | Worst peak-to-trough drawdown on the realised curve — what the record actually felt like to hold, not just where it ended. |
The composite is the blend of those five. It exists to make one thing impossible: a wallet that dumped a large stake into a single correct coin-flip topping the list. That wallet tops every public leaderboard and following it is worse than useless.
Exhibit C — re-derive it yourself
Polymarket’s data is public and free. These are the same endpoints the engine uses. No account, no API key, no permission from us:
# the live tape — every trade, as it happens
GET https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades
# one wallet's complete fill history (money in and out)
GET https://data-api.polymarket.com/activity?user=0x…
# one wallet's positions, with resolution status
GET https://data-api.polymarket.com/positions?user=0x…
# the market: question, prices, resolution
GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?slug=<market_slug>
GET https://clob.polymarket.com/markets/<condition_id>To check one call: take the call id and wallet from the ledger, pull that wallet’s activity, and confirm the position existed at the price and size we printed, at the timestamp we printed. Then pull the market and confirm how it resolved. Both halves are public; neither goes through us.
To check the whole record: do that for every line. That is the point of publishing all of them.
Two honest limits. Both endpoints above are Polymarket’s, so if they change shape or go down, our engine and your audit break together. And a wallet’s identity is an address, not a person — one human may run several, and we do not claim to know who anyone is.
The record is free. The calls, while they are still open, are $12 a week or $49 a month.
Everything that has resolved is on the ledger for nothing, permanently, no account. What you pay for is time: the call at the moment the rule fires, at the price it fired at, on your own live page.
See what it costs →