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OddsXray · The Board Monday, August 31, 2026 · Live prices
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The Board › Geopolitics
Geopolitics · Flat

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Priced as a real reach at 3%; the market's not budging. Conviction, priced live.

3%
Implied probability · Long Shot
—
24h move
$7.2M
Volume traded
2026-09-30
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.

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