Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Doubt's winning at 28%; the market's not budging. Conviction, priced live.
What it resolves on
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
More in Geopolitics
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?20%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?14%
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?47%
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?88%
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?55%
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?14%
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?38%
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?6%
The Trader X-Ray
You’re not unlucky. You’re leaking.
Paste your Polymarket wallet. The X-Ray reads your entire public record — every fill, exit and resolution — and writes the dossier: where your money actually comes from, the habits that bleed it, and the 90-day repair. The median active wallet has made $9, ever. Know what yours is doing.
We email your scan link when it’s ready (about a minute).
The board and the day’s biggest movers, in your inbox each morning. Free.