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Vol. I · Archived editionThursday, July 16, 2026Archive
OddsXray
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Politics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Politics · Firming

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Doubt's winning at 34% — and nudging up.

34%
Implied probability · Unlikely
▲ 6
24h move
$826K
Volume traded
2026-09-16
Resolves

What it resolves on

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g.

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