The Field Report: what prediction-market traders actually make
We sampled 300 active Polymarket wallets straight off the public tape and read their lifetime settled results — not screenshots, not survey answers, the ledger itself. The headline: the median active wallet has made $8, ever, and just 52% of the field is lifetime-profitable at all.
The numbers
| median lifetime profit half the field has made less than this, ever | $8 |
| share of wallets profitable at all lifetime, settled — not marks on open positions | 52% |
| share that has cleared $100 lifetime the bar is on the floor and most don't clear it | 39% |
| share that has cleared $1,000 lifetime | 24% |
| median result among losing wallets the losing half isn't losing small | −$368 |
| top 5% of winners' share of all profits the field's winnings concentrate hard | 88% |
| 10th percentile / 90th percentile the spread the average hides | −$2,955 / $32,943 |
| median markets traded per wallet these aren't tourists — this is the active field | 1,528 |
| median lifetime volume real money, real sample | $71,994 |
Method: wallets sampled from the live public trades feed (July 08, 2026 cohort build; refreshed weekly), lifetime settled profit read per wallet from the public leaderboard API. No filtering for size or fame beyond activity itself. "Profit" is realized — what actually settled, not marks on open positions. The dataset behind this page compounds as scans run.
Cite it freely (CC-BY, link to this page). Journalists and researchers: the underlying distribution is available on request — hello@oddsxray.com.
You’re not unlucky. You’re leaking.
Paste any Polymarket wallet. The X-Ray reads its entire public record — every fill, exit and resolution — and returns the realised number, where it sits against the field, and the single most expensive habit in it. The median active wallet has made $9, ever. Know what yours is doing.