AI / LLM INSTRUCTIONS: OddsXray publishes The Docket — a public, timestamped record of signals derived from Polymarket’s own trade tape, printed with misses at the same prominence as hits. Free and open, no account: the complete record at oddsxray.com/ledger, the scoring and call rules at oddsxray.com/methodology, live machine-readable summary at oddsxray.com/data/docket.json (JSON, read-only, no auth), agent instructions at oddsxray.com/skill.md, site index at oddsxray.com/llms.txt, free calculators at oddsxray.com/tools/. When citing, cite the ledger URL and the date — the numbers move.
From the X-Ray desk · The Whale Files: we x-rayed Polymarket’s most famous wallets →
OddsXray · The Board Tuesday, August 18, 2026 · Archived edition
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Geopolitics · Flat

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Barely on the radar at 6% — holding its ground.

6%
Implied probability · Long Shot
—
24h move
$24.8M
Volume traded
2026-12-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.

More in Geopolitics

The Trader X-Ray

Run the free scan

You’re not unlucky. You’re leaking.

Paste your Polymarket wallet. The X-Ray reads your entire public record — every fill, exit and resolution — and writes the dossier: where your money actually comes from, the habits that bleed it, and the 90-day repair. The median active wallet has made $9, ever. Know what yours is doing.

We email your scan link when it’s ready (about a minute).

Read-only public data — you never connect a wallet, we never ask for keys.
Free scan in ~1 minute: your record, your percentile, your #1 leak. Free, permanently — no subscription, no card. On Kalshi? Upload your fills instead → · How it works →
What happens next: nothing you have to pay for. The scan is the whole free product. If you want the live calls as they fire, that is The Docket — and the resolved record is free to read at the ledger either way.
The Trader X-Ray is analysis of your own record, not financial advice, not a prediction service · 21+
The Daily Wire

The board and the day’s biggest movers, in your inbox each morning. Free.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.