Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Barely on the radar at 8% — holding its ground.
What it resolves on
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
More in Geopolitics
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- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?49%
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- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?55%
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?10%
- US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?37%
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?6%
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