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Geopolitics · Fading Fast
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Balanced on a knife's edge — 46%; the bottom's falling out.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›46%Implied probabilityToss-Up · ▼ 12 pts/24h
$471K traded · resolves 2026-08-20
What it resolves on
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement (the MOU), including a 60-day negotiation period toward a “final deal”, extendable by mutual consent. This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the United States and Iran publicly and officially announce an extension of the 60-day negotiation period initiated by the MOU between market creation and August 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of a present extension of the 60-day negotiation period, a previously-unannounced prior extension of the 60-day negotiation period, or definitive agreement to extend the 60-day negot…
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