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Geopolitics · Firming Fast
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
A true toss-up at 46%, and firming hard.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›46%Implied probabilityToss-Up · ▲ 21 pts/24h
$175K traded · resolves 2026-07-31
What it resolves on
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by July 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must …
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