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Geopolitics · Fading
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
Below even, at 30%, drifting the wrong way.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›30%Implied probabilityUnlikely · ▼ 2 pts/24h
$1.5M traded · resolves 2026-07-31
What it resolves on
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the in…
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