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Vol. I · Archived editionTuesday, July 21, 2026Archive
OddsXray
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Geopolitics · Flat

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?

Written off by most at 5%, steady as she goes.

5%
Implied probability · Long Shot
—
24h move
$1.6M
Volume traded
2026-08-18
Resolves

What it resolves on

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics. This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran.

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