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Vol. I · Archived editionSaturday, July 25, 2026Archive
OddsXray
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The Board › Geopolitics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Geopolitics · Flat

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?

Written off by most at 2% — flat on the day.

2%
Implied probability · Long Shot
—
24h move
$4.6M
Volume traded
2026-06-30
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.

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