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Geopolitics · Firming
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 12?
In the driver's seat — 78% — and nudging up.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›78%Implied probabilityLikely · ▲ 3 pts/24h
$82K traded · resolves 2026-07-12
What it resolves on
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran takes a qualifying military action against a Gulf State on the specified date Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” Qualifying Gulf States are as follows: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, that directly impacts a Gulf State. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones over 50 kg in total weight and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The…
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