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OddsXray · The Board Monday, August 31, 2026 · Live prices
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The Board › Geopolitics
Geopolitics · Flat

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?

Deep in long-shot country at 2% — no real move. Sharps are watching.

2%
Implied probability · Long Shot
—
24h move
$728K
Volume traded
2026-10-01
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.

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