Geopolitics · Firming Fast
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
The tape likes it: 62% — and ripping higher, up 16 on the day.
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What moved today — the five biggest 24-hour repricings
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?26% ▼ 15
The market leans against it — 26%, down 15 and sinking. Conviction, priced live.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?39% ▲ 14
Behind the eight ball at 39% — and climbing fast.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?79% ▲ 12
The market's leaning yes: 79%; conviction's spiking. File it away.
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?48% ▼ 8
Right on the fence at 48%; the air's coming out.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?50% ▲ 8
A 50/50 in all but name — 50%, drawing fresh money.
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The board today
Table 1 · The board · Top 11 of 62 live markets by volume · Polymarket, prices read at publication
Probabilities are public prediction-market prices, read plainly. Volume is lifetime, in dollars.
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