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Geopolitics · Firming
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
A bet the room mostly waves off — 2%, and ticking higher.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›2%Implied probabilityLong Shot · ▲ 2 pts/24h
$2.7M traded · resolves 2026-06-30
What it resolves on
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States agrees to Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran charging fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz refers to U.S. acceptance of Iran imposing tolls, transit fees, passage charges, or other mandatory payments on commercial vessels in exchange for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will be considered to have agreed to Iran charging such fees if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States has definitively agreed to accept Iran…
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