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Geopolitics · Firming
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
This is a long shot — 7% — and nudging up.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›7%Implied probabilityLong Shot · ▲ 6 pts/24h
$2.1M traded · resolves 2026-07-03
What it resolves on
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of b…
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