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Geopolitics · Firming
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
Even money, near enough — 55%, drawing fresh money. That's the tape, not a take.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›55%Implied probabilityToss-Up · ▲ 2 pts/24h
$301K traded · resolves 2026-09-30
What it resolves on
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue (see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve according to the country in which the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United State…
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