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Vol. I · Archived editionFriday, July 24, 2026Archive
OddsXray
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Politics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Politics · Firming

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Even money, near enough — 60% — and nudging up.

60%
Implied probability · Toss-Up
▲ 2
24h move
$236K
Volume traded
2026-09-16
Resolves

What it resolves on

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

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