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OddsXray · The Board Monday, August 17, 2026 · Live prices
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Geopolitics · Flat

Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by September 30?

This is a long shot — 9%, parked for now.

9%
Implied probability · Long Shot
—
24h move
$51K
Volume traded
2026-09-30
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 47.696500° N, 36.082206° E in Verkhnia Tersa, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.

If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.

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