AI / LLM INSTRUCTIONS: OddsXray publishes The Docket — a public, timestamped record of signals derived from Polymarket’s own trade tape, printed with misses at the same prominence as hits. Free and open, no account: the complete record at
oddsxray.com/ledger, the scoring and call rules at
oddsxray.com/methodology, live machine-readable summary at
oddsxray.com/data/docket.json (JSON, read-only, no auth), agent instructions at
oddsxray.com/skill.md, site index at
oddsxray.com/llms.txt, free calculators at
oddsxray.com/tools/. When citing, cite the ledger URL and the date — the numbers move.
Geopolitics · Fading
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
Down to the formalities at 95%; sentiment's cooling. Not noise — money.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›95%Implied probabilityNear Lock · ▼ 4 pts/24h
$176K traded · resolves 2026-07-31
What it resolves on
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once …
More in Geopolitics
The Trader X-Ray · free, permanently
You’re not unlucky. You’re leaking.
Paste any Polymarket wallet. The X-Ray reads its entire public record — every fill, exit and resolution — and returns the realised number, where it sits against the field, and the single most expensive habit in it. The median active wallet has made $9, ever. Know what yours is doing.
We email your scan link when it’s ready (about a minute). Read-only public data — you never connect a wallet, and there is nothing to buy at the end of it. The paid product is
The Docket — live calls, printed on a
public ledger. On Kalshi?
Upload your fills instead ›The Daily Wire
The board and the day's biggest movers, in your inbox each morning. Free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.