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OddsXray · The Board Thursday, August 06, 2026 · Live prices
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Geopolitics · Fading Fast

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?

A genuine coin-flip — 43% — and collapsing, down 24.

43%
Implied probability · Toss-Up
▼ 24
24h move
$97K
Volume traded
2026-08-15
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

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