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OddsXray · The Board Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · Archived edition
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Geopolitics · Firming

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?

The smart money treats it as done — 98% — firming, up 2. Worth keeping an eye on.

98%
Implied probability · Near Lock
▲ 2
24h move
$1.7M
Volume traded
2026-08-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day.

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