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Geopolitics · Flat
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
Not favored, 30% — flat on the day. The board clocked it.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›30%Implied probabilityUnlikely · —/24h
$333K traded · resolves 2026-09-30
What it resolves on
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, including a 60-day extendable period in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal” regarding Iran’s nuclear program and other topics. This market resolves to “Yes” if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran has been mutually signed or adopted by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” Unless the written instrument is formally adopted without signature as described below, the instrument must be signed by both the United States and Iran. Both parties must either sign the same document or sign individual documents t…
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