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Geopolitics · Fading
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
Priced as a real reach at 2%, and slipping. Conviction, priced live.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›2%Implied probabilityLong Shot · ▼ 4 pts/24h
$605K traded · resolves 2026-07-07
What it resolves on
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 7, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been…
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