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Geopolitics · Flat
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Not where the smart money's parked — 2%, steady as she goes.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›2%Implied probabilityLong Shot · —/24h
$1.6M traded · resolves 2026-07-15
What it resolves on
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limi…
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