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Vol. I · Archived editionTuesday, July 21, 2026Archive
OddsXray
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Geopolitics · Flat

Iran invades Kuwait by July 31?

The crowd's not sold: 2%, and going nowhere.

2%
Implied probability · Long Shot
—
24h move
$93K
Volume traded
2026-07-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any Iranian military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Kuwait for less than 48 hours will not qualify. Mere presence of Iranian military forces within Kuwait will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Kuwait.

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