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Geopolitics · Fading Fast
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?
A bet the room mostly waves off — 2%; the bottom's falling out.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›2%Implied probabilityLong Shot · ▼ 11 pts/24h
$229K traded · resolves 2026-07-12
What it resolves on
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and July 12, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qual…
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