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Geopolitics · Firming
Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?
The crowd's not sold: 4%, and ticking higher.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›4%Implied probabilityLong Shot · ▲ 3 pts/24h
$402K traded · resolves 2026-07-15
What it resolves on
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify. A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz wit…
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