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OddsXray · The Board Tuesday, August 04, 2026 · Live prices
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Geopolitics · Firming

Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?

The market leans against it — 24%, and ticking higher.

24%
Implied probability · Unlikely
▲ 2
24h move
$552K
Volume traded
2026-08-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies). Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.

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