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OddsXray · The Board Thursday, July 30, 2026 · Live prices
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Geopolitics · Flat

Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Priced as a real reach at 5%, and going nowhere. Not noise — money.

5%
Implied probability · Long Shot
—
24h move
$762K
Volume traded
2026-12-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8.

Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

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