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Vol. I · Archived editionMonday, July 20, 2026Archive
OddsXray
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The Board › Geopolitics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Geopolitics · Fading

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

The crowd's not sold: 10% — off a touch, 5.

10%
Implied probability · Long Shot
▼ 5
24h move
$2.1M
Volume traded
2027-12-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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