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OddsXray · The Board Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · Archived edition
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Geopolitics · Fading

Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026?

At 7%, the market barely believes it, drifting the wrong way.

7%
Implied probability · Long Shot
▼ 2
24h move
$200K
Volume traded
2026-12-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Malokaterynivka, Zaporizhzhya Oblast (47.6566° N, 35.2560° E), by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Malokaterynivka is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.

Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.

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