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OddsXray · The Board Thursday, July 30, 2026 · Live prices
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The Board › Geopolitics
Geopolitics · Fading

Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?

The crowd's not sold: 5%, and slipping.

5%
Implied probability · Long Shot
▼ 2
24h move
$101K
Volume traded
2026-09-30
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.0728° N, 36.5235° E in Havrylivka by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.

If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.

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