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OddsXray · The Board Sunday, August 09, 2026 · Live prices
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Geopolitics · Flat

Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?

This is a long shot — 4%; nobody's pressing.

4%
Implied probability · Long Shot
—
24h move
$124K
Volume traded
2026-09-30
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine.

An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

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