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OddsXray · The Board Friday, July 31, 2026 · Archived edition
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Geopolitics · Firming

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

This is a long shot — 10%, gaining a little ground.

10%
Implied probability · Long Shot
▲ 4
24h move
$469K
Volume traded
2026-08-15
Resolves

What it resolves on

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A termination means a definitive end to Iran's participation in the negotiation process as a whole.

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