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Geopolitics · Flat
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?
Priced as a real reach at 12% — no real move.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›12%Implied probabilityLong Shot · —/24h
$115K traded · resolves 2026-08-31
What it resolves on
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline futu…
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