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Vol. I · Archived editionThursday, July 16, 2026Archive
OddsXray
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The Board › Geopolitics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Geopolitics · Flat

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Written off by most at 6%; nobody's pressing.

6%
Implied probability · Long Shot
—
24h move
$3.0M
Volume traded
2026-12-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces.

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