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OddsXray · The Board Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · Archived edition
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Geopolitics · Fading

Iran full airspace closure by August 15?

The tape says 2% — a real reach; the air's coming out. It's all in the price.

2%
Implied probability · Long Shot
▼ 2
24h move
$661K
Volume traded
2026-08-15
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify.

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