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Vol. I · Archived editionWednesday, July 15, 2026Archive
OddsXray
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Politics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Politics · Fading Fast

Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Deep in long-shot country at 7%; conviction's evaporating.

7%
Implied probability · Long Shot
▼ 27
24h move
$476K
Volume traded
2026-12-09
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify.

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