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Vol. I · Archived editionMonday, July 20, 2026Archive
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The Board › Geopolitics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Geopolitics · Firming Fast

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Split down the middle at 58%; conviction's spiking.

58%
Implied probability · Toss-Up
▲ 48
24h move
$2.2M
Volume traded
2026-12-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

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