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Vol. I · Archived editionThursday, July 16, 2026Archive
OddsXray
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The Board › Geopolitics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Geopolitics · Flat

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

At 8%, the market barely believes it; the market's not budging. It's all in the price.

8%
Implied probability · Long Shot
—
24h move
$983K
Volume traded
2026-12-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Japan between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Japanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

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