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Politics · Flat
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
Barely on the radar at 2%; the market's not budging.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›2%Implied probabilityLong Shot · —/24h
$462K traded · resolves 2026-07-31
What it resolves on
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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