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Sports · Firming
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Behind the eight ball at 16% — slightly stronger today.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›16%Implied probabilityUnlikely · ▲ 8 pts/24h
$220K traded · resolves 2026-07-31
What it resolves on
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces its termination of participation in the negotiation process toward the final agreement contemplated by the June 14, 2026 MOU between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A termination means a definitive end to the United States' participation in the negotiation process as a whole. A tem…
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