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Vol. I · Archived editionFriday, July 24, 2026Archive
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The Board › Markets
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Markets · Fading Fast

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?

Out in front at 77% — cratering on the day.

77%
Implied probability · Likely
▼ 15
24h move
$375K
Volume traded
2026-07-24
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 4.9, Claude Opus 5.0, Opus 5, or any other Opus variants.

Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.

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