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Vol. I · Archived editionThursday, July 16, 2026Archive
OddsXray
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The Board › Politics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Politics · Firming Fast

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?

Odds-on at 66% — somebody just moved it 11 points. It's all in the price.

66%
Implied probability · Likely
▲ 11
24h move
$178K
Volume traded
2026-09-16
Resolves

What it resolves on

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

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