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The Board  ›  Politics
Politics · Firming

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

The tape says 2% — a real reach, gaining a little ground. Numbers don't sulk.

Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
2%
Implied probabilityLong Shot · ▲ 2 pts/24h
$4.8M traded · resolves 2026-07-29

What it resolves on

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for th…

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