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Politics · Firming
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Split down the middle at 44% — and nudging up. That's the tape, not a take.
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded.
Today’s live board ›44%Implied probabilityToss-Up · ▲ 3 pts/24h
$1.7M traded · resolves 2026-11-03
What it resolves on
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will re…
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