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OddsXray · The Board Wednesday, August 19, 2026 · Archived edition
The daily ledger of what the world actually believes — live odds from the prediction markets, read plainly.
The Board › Geopolitics
Archived edition — this market has closed or left the live board; figures are the last recorded. Today’s live board ›
Geopolitics · Firming Fast

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?

All but decided — 97%; conviction's spiking.

97%
Implied probability · Near Lock
▲ 75
24h move
$228K
Volume traded
2026-08-31
Resolves

What it resolves on

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the Kostyantynivka railroad station located on Pravoberezhna vulytsia by August 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The railroad station will be considered captured if any part of the train station icon is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.

If the area is not shaded red by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.

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